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Notice that if the game is only half-full, the odds against hitting the jackpot more than quadruple, rather than just double. This table also shows why (if the game is very short-handed), you should not play for a small jackpot. With the game already short-handed, the pots will be much smaller than usual, and the $ 1 that's taken out for the jackpot will be a much larger percentage of the pot than usual. You'll make more money in the long run if you leave that dollar in the pot where you can win it now.
Don't use that dollar to make a bet that you can beat the 56,000+ to 1 odds to get a share of the jackpot in the next few hours. If your game is five-handed and you're playing thirty-five hands per hour for the next three hours, then you'll have played 105 hands. 56,250/105=535.7. Your odds of hitting the jackpot in the next three hours are 535.7 to 1.
Would you rather have the extra $30 or so that you will win today by not playing for the jackpot, or would you rather give up that money in exchange for the long odds of hitting the jackpot? That $30 saved 535 times equals $16,071. Would your share of any jackpot be that big if you hit it? Usually not.
There's one other thing about jackpots that you should know. It concerns the Omaha jackpot, if there is one. My research has shown me that an Omaha jackpot is about four times easier to hit than a hold 'em jackpot. Why? It's because there are more hand matchups in Omaha than there are in hold 'em.
An Omaha player who is dealt A*J*9*7V doesn't have just one hand. He has six of them:
l.A*J* 3.A*7V 5.J*7* 2. A*9V 4. J*9¥ 6.9*7*
Just two Omaha players can matchup their hands in thirty-six different ways! It takes nine hold 'em players to achieve that many matchups. How many times have you been in a hold 'em game where one of the players had the minimum losing hand to hit the jackpot and no one beat him?
In an Omaha game, every player in the hand will have six times as many hands as he would in a hold 'em game. Because of that, someone will beat him about four times as often as in the hold 'em game. Why four times and not six times as often? Two reasons:
1. It's impossible for 2s, 3s and 4s to make a qualifying hand under most circumstances.
2. Some Omaha games require that the losing hand be four-of-a-kind rather than just aces full.
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5. The player in the fifth seat can match up his hand with the players in seats 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10, for a total of five matchups. TOTAL: 9+8+7+6+5=35
6. The player in the sixth seat can match up his hand with the players in seats 7, 8, 9, and 10, for a total of four matchups. TOTAL: 9+8+7+6+5+4=39
7. The player in the seventh seat can match up his hand with the players in seats 8, 9, and 10, for a total of three matchups. TOTAL: 9+8+7+6+5+4+3=42
8. The player in the eighth seat can match up his hand with the players in seats 9 and 10, for a total of two matchups. TOTAL: 9+8+7+6+5+4+3+2=44
9. The player in the ninth seat can match up his hand with the player in the tenth seat for only one matchup. Total: 9+8+7+6+5+4+3+2+1=45
This list means that for every hand dealt, there are forty-five hand matchups. If it takes 12,500 hands to hit a jackpot, then when a jackpot is hit, on average, there will have been a total of 562,500 hand matchups (12,500 x 45 = 562,500). That number applies for a full, ten-handed game.
If the games were all nine-handed, then there would be only thirty-six matchups per hand, and you would have to divide 562,500 by 36 to get the number of hands that it would take to hit the jackpot. That comes out to be 15,625 hands (562,500/36 = 15,625).
With just one player fewer at a table, the odds against hitting the jackpot increase by exactly 25% (12,500 + 25% = 15,625) instead of 10% as you might expect. That's because the number of possible matchups decreases exponentially as each player leaves the game. Using the above math as a foundation, I've created the following table to tell you the odds against hitting a jackpot with various numbers of players in the game.
ODDS AGAINST HITTING A JACKPOT
total divided by # of hands needed
# of players matchups # of matchups to hit jackpot
10 562,500 45 12,500
9 562,500 36 15,625
8 562,500 28 20,089
7 562,500 21 26,785
6 562,500 15 37,500
5 562,500 10 56,250
4 562,500 6 93,750
3 562,500 3 187,500
2 562,500 1 562,500
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